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Any recovery over Monday and Tuesday on the Nifty was courtesy of the outperformance seen in the Nifty Bank. With the index underperforming on Wednesday, the Nifty found it hard to sustain by itself and having nearly recovered all the losses at one point during the day, ended with losses of over 120 points.
With Wednesday’s drop, the Nifty has closed exactly at the same level as Monday. The positive from this is the fact that the index has been making higher lows on the daily scale for the last three trading sessions.
Despite a near-2,000-point correction from the record high levels last month, the Nifty is still on course to end Samvat 2080 with gains of over 25%, which will be one of the best Samvat’s the index has had in the last few years.
Both new entrants on the index, Trent and Bharat Electronics are the best performers on the index during the Samvat, although it has only been a month since they began trading on the Nifty. While Trent has nearly tripled in value during this period, BEL has also more than doubled.
For now, the Nifty has managed to respect the immediate support of 24,300 on the downside and that becomes the first level to track ahead of the monthly expiry session on Thursday. The Nifty has declined over 1,800 points during this series, one in which it made a record high at the very onset.
Earnings will also take a slight breather as the festivities pick up pace. Yet, L&T, Biocon, Tata Power, New India Assurance, TCI Express, Protean eGov Technologies, will react to their results that were reported after market hours on Wednesday.
No major company will also be reporting results on the final day of Samvat 2080.
Foreign institutions continued to remain net sellers in the cash market on Wednesday, while domestic institutions were net buyers yet again.
Rupak De of LKP Securities said that the Nifty has seen resistance around the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average, leading to a move back to 24,300. He expects the Nifty to remain sideways within this range of 24,250 – 24,500 levels and a decisive breakout on either side will give direction to the index. 24,500 and 24,750 are resistances on the upside.
The Nifty has formed a doji pattern on the daily chart, highlighting uncertainty among the market participants, said Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One. He sees 24,500 as a tough resistance for the Nifty on its monthly expiry, but a move above that can take the index to 24,600 and beyond. On the flip side, 24,200 and 24,100 are key support levels.
The short-term charts of the Nifty remain in oversold zone and further short covering can be seen on the index from current levels, said Sanctum Wealth’s Aditya Agarwal. However, he added that 24,480 – 24,520 will continue to be a stiff resistance and only a close above that can trigger an upmove towards 24,680 – 24,740 levels. On the downside, 24,280 – 24,240 levels are key support levels.
Three straight days of gains for the Nifty Bank was not to be as it ended its October F&O series on a negative note, shedding 500 points, or half of what it had gained on Tuesday. For the series, the Nifty Bank shed nearly 2,500 points, despite the recovery seen on Monday and Tuesday. The index has managed a close above 51,800 and that will be the first level to track on Thursday, followed by Thursday’s high of 52,220.
Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates said that the Nifty Bank has formed an inside bar candlestick pattern with support at 51,140 and resistance at the previous swing high of 52,580. He expects consolidation within this range for the time being with only a breakout on either side determining further direction.
What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?
Fresh long positions were seen in these stocks one day before the monthly expiry, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Britannia | 1.69% | 20.09% |
| Pidilite | 1.31% | 18.08% |
| Godrej Consumer Products | 1.39% | 12.69% |
| Divi’s Laboratories | 1.15% | 8.51% |
| Aditya Birla Capital | 4.88% | 4.11% |
Fresh short positions were seen in these stocks on Wednesday, meaning a decline in price but an increase in Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Shriram Finance | -2.19% | 28.20% |
| M&M | -1.74% | 24.20% |
| Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories | -2.24% | 11.26% |
| Lupin | -2.26% | 7.00% |
| Vodafone Idea | -3.51% | 6.96% |
Short Covering was seen in these stocks on Wednesday, meaning an increase in price but a decline in Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Can Fin Homes | 2.38% | -41.37% |
| Tata Chemicals | 2.89% | -40.61% |
| Balrampur Chini | 2.60% | -28.33% |
| Maruti Suzuki | 2.41% | -21.17% |
| Escorts Kubota | 3.37% | -20.02% |
Unwinding of long positions was seen in these stocks on Wednesday, meaning a decline in both price and Open Interest:
| Stock | Price Change | OI Change |
| Tech Mahindra | -1.00% | -41.85% |
| Dixon Tech | -4.86% | -32.98% |
| MCX | -6.78% | -26.30% |
| ICICI Prudential | -2.47% | -23.83% |
| Voltas | -4.49% | -16.99% |
These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Thursday’s trading session:
- Larsen & Toubro: Sticks to FY25 order inflow and margin guidance. The management also said that it is currently L1 in two projects for NTPC, confirming a CNBC-TV18 newsbreak. Net profit a marginal beat on estimates. Order inflow during the quarter at ₹80,045 crore. International markets contribute two-thirds of the order inflow. Revenue of ₹61,554.6 crore, higher than estimates of ₹57,942.6 crore. EBITDA at ₹6,362 crore, higher than estimates of ₹6,114 crore, while EBITDA margin at 10.3%, marginally lower than the 10.6% estimate.
- Tata Power: Net profit up 5.8% to ₹926.5 crore from ₹875.5 crore last year. Revenue flat at ₹15,697.7 crore. EBITDA up 21.2% to ₹3,745 crore. EBITDA margin at 23.9% from 19.6% last year.
- Biocon: Net profit of ₹27.1 crore, lower than poll of ₹54.7 crore. Revenue of ₹3,590.4 crore versus estimates of ₹3,660.1 crore. EBITDA at ₹685.5 crore, lower than estimate of ₹736 crore. EBITDA margin at 19.1% compared to estimates of 20%.
- IRB Infra: Net profit up 4.3% to ₹99.8 crore. Revenue down 9.1% to ₹158.6 crore. EBITDA down 3.6% to ₹76.6 crore. EBITDA margin at 48.3% from 45.6% last year.
- Automotive Axles: Net profit down 20% to ₹36 crore. Revenue down 15.4% to ₹494.6 crore. EBITDA down 23% to ₹51 crore. EBITDA margin at 10.3% from 11.3% last year.
- DCM Shriram: Net profit up 95.7% to ₹63 crore. Revenue up 11% to ₹3,130 crore. EBITDA up 58.8% to ₹181.2 crore. Margins at 5.8% from 4% last year.
- Adani Power: Signs power supply agreement with Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company.
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