Until the start of this week, there was a struggle for the Nifty to cross the upper end of this 500-point range of 24,700 – 25,250 that it found itself in. As the week draws to a close on Friday, the Nifty bulls are now struggling to defend the lower end of this range, having closed at the lows it had made on September 9.

The Nifty fell for the third day in a row during its weekly options expiry on Thursday and has now declined in four out of the last five trading sessions. With Thursday’s drop, the October 7 low of 24,694 now comes into the picture again and defending that will be the first task for the bulls when the markets open on Friday.

There were enough factors to spoil the mood of the street on Thursday. Bajaj Auto’s results had no positive surprise and some cautious commentary from the management on festive season demand took the stock down by 12%, its biggest single-day fall since March 2020. Not only did Bajaj Auto tank, it took other auto stocks along with it, as fears of a broader industry slowdown resurfaced yet again.

Real Estate continued to see selling pressure, as did Metals, barring NALCO, after another series of disappointing announcements from the Chinese housing minister. Barring IT, every other sectoral index ended in the red on Thursday.

But the IT run-up will also be tested on Friday after Infosys’ results, which did not have any positive surprise either. Despite raising guidance, it appears to be falling short of what the street had anticipated. At the time of writing this, the US-listed shares of Infosys (ADRs) were down 3.5%, while those of Wipro were down 4%.

Besides Infosys, shares of Wipro, LTIMindtree, Polycab, Tata Chemicals and others will also be reacting to their quarterly results that were reported after market hours on Thursday.

The three days of losses have ensured that the Nifty is now down 0.9% for the week, not an alarming number, but the index is down for the third straight week and in case it does not manage a close above 24,964 on Friday, it will be the first time in 2024 that the Nifty has declined for three straight weeks.

Foreign institutions were heavy sellers in the cash market on Thursday and their selling intensity also picked up after tapering off for a few sessions. They have been net sellers in every single session during the month of October and have cumulatively sold more in the cash market than they did during the onset of Covid-19 in March 2020.

The Nifty has broken down from a bearish flag pattern, suggesting a possibly downward move in the short-term, said Rupak De of LKP Securities. The RSI is also in a bearish crossover. However, he says this may not be the ideal level to initiate fresh shorts as the Nifty is nearing a double-bottom support which can trigger a recovery towards 25,000. But a break below 24,700 decisively could trigger further correction.

Nagaraj Shetti of LKP Securities said that the recent highs around 25,200 can be considered a new lower top and a decisive move below 24,700 could form a new lower bottom in the near-term. He expects the Nifty to slide to 24,500 – 24,400 levels by next week on a slip below 24,700. Immediate resistance now is at 24,900.

On the intraday charts, the Nifty has formed a bearish candle and the texture will remain weak till the index remains below 24,900 levels, according to Kotak Securities’ Shrikant Chouhan. On the downside, he expects a fall towards levels of 24,550 – 24,500, while a pullback move to 24,900 could be seen in case the index moves above 24,825.

The Nifty Bank has nearly reversed everything it gained over Monday and Tuesday. The index closing above 51,900 on Tuesday made it appear as an outperformer and one that could cushion the Nifty downside while moving higher post a breakout, but that hasn’t turned out as planned.

The index is back below both its 50 and 100-Day Moving Average and is now fighting to defend levels of 51,200 on the downside, which it slipped below intraday on Thursday. Despite this two-day fall, the Nifty Bank is still marginally positive for the week and needs to close above 51,172 to remain in the green on a weekly basis.

Aditya Agarwal of Sanctum Wealth said that the Nifty Bank will continue to find support around the 51,000 – 50,800 zone and dips towards those levels should be used to initiate fresh longs for a short covering pullback. He expects 52,000 to be a resistance due to the aggressive call writing seen at that strike price.

The Nifty Bank has formed a big bearish candle leading to profit booking and a negative close, indicating weakness, said Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates. On the downside, the Nifty has a key support at 51,050 but a move below 51,000 could trigger further weakness.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Fresh long positions were seen in these stocks on Thursday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:

Stock	Price Change	OI Change
Infosys	2.93%	8.17%
Tech Mahindra	2.83%	6.75%
Mphasis	6.30%	6.30%
LTIMindtree	0.84%	4.95%
L&T	1.00%	4.77%

Fresh short positions were seen in these stocks on Thursday, meaning a decline in price but an increase in Open Interest:

Stock	Price Change	OI Change
Bajaj Auto	-13.42%	58.50%
Nestle India	-3.36%	16.47%
Wipro	-0.84%	16.04%
BHEL	-6.23%	14.21%
Hero MotoCorp	-3.40%	13.97%

Unwinding of long positions was seen in these stocks on Thursday, meaning a decline in both price and Open Interest:

Stock	Price Change	OI Change
Siemens	-3.12%	-5.86%
PVR Inox	-1.14%	-4.99%
IPCA Labs	-0.25%	-3.82%
Axis Bank	-2.08%	-3.39%

These are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Friday’s trading session:

• Infosys: Constant currency revenue growth guidance for FY25 raised to 3.75% to 4.5% from 3% to 4% earlier. Net profit below expectations, while constant currency growth of 3.1% quarter-on-quarter is in-line with estimates of 3%.EBIT margin flat at 21.1%. ADRs listed in the US decline post results.
• Wipro: Q2 ahead of expectations but guidance disappoints. Constant Currency revenue growth of 0.6% sequentially, a first after six quarters of decline. EBIT margin expands for the third quarter in a row. Large deal bookings the highest in 10 quarters. Q3 revenue growth seen between a decline of 2% to 0%. Board also approves bonus issue in 1:1 ratio.
• Axis Bank: Net Interest Income up 9.5% from last year to ₹13,483.2 crore. Net profit up 18% from last year to ₹6,917.6 crore. Gross NPA at 1.44% from 1.54% last quarter. Net NPA unchanged at 0.34%. Provisions at ₹2,204.1 crore up 170% year-on-year and 8.1% from the June quarter. Deposits up 13.7% to ₹10.86 lakh crore. Advances up 11.4% from last year to nearly ₹10 lakh crore. NIMs at 3.99% from 4.11% last year and 4.05% sequentially.
• LTIMindtree: Net profit up 10.3% sequentially to ₹1,251.6 crore, in-line with expectations. Revenue up 3.2% to ₹9,432.9 crore, also in-line with expectations. EBIT up 6.4% to ₹1,458.2 crore, while margin expands 50 basis points to 15.5%, meets expectations of 15.5%. The company also declared a dividend of ₹20 per share.
• Polycab: Net profit up 3.6% to ₹445.2 crore. Revenue up 30.4% to ₹5,498.4 crore. EBITDA up 3.7% to ₹631.5 crore. EBITDA margin at 11.5% from 14.4% last year. Management expects demand momentum to continue. Wires & Cables business grew by 23% from last year, while FMEG business saw growth of 18% from last year. Margins impacted by heightened competitive intensity in the wires and cables business, further accelerated by faster growth of lower-margin institutional business compared to the distribution business. Increased Ad spends and employee expenses in the FMEG segment also hurt margins.
• Tata Chemicals: Net profit down 46.1% to ₹267 crore. Revenue flat at ₹3,999 crore. EBITDA down 24.5% to ₹618 crore. EBITDA margin narrows by 500 basis points to 15.5% from 20.5% last year. Soda ash demand in India stable but container glass demand in Americas and Europe saw muted demand. Heavy rains in July and August impacted Mithapur opertions. Overall performance better than previous quarter due to higher sales volume, coupled with higher realisation of soda ash.
• Zomato: To consider fund raising through the QIP route on October 22, 2024.
• Indraprastha Gas: Revised domestic gas allocation 21% lower than previous allocation. Lower gas allocation will have adverse impact on profitability. In discussion with key stakeholders to minimise impact.