Reliance Industries Ltd., the Nifty 50 heavyweight, will be reporting its September quarter results on October 14. The stock has risen 6% so far in 2024.

Global brokerage Jefferies anticipates a surge in the Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) of the oil and gas segment.

EBITDA is expected to increase 5% year-on-year, but decline 4% quarter-on-quarter at ₹4,999 crore.

EBITDA TREND

Brokerage firm ICICI Securities expects Reliance’s upstream to show softness, with a slight production decline and higher profit petroleum share of government to dent margins.
For the O2C segment, Jefferies expects a 1% decline in EBITDA, compared to the previous quarter.

The Singapore Gross Refining Margin (GRM) remained low at $3.6 per barrel in the September quarter, slightly up from $3.5 per barrel in the first quarter.

Asian diesel spreads declined by 8% quarter-on-quarter due to weak demand from China. Margins were further squeezed by increased refinery capacity.

Gasoline spreads dropped 15% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting soft US demand, while petrochemical margins remained at their lowest point in 15 years.

According to an estimate from Prabhudas Lilladher, refining throughput at 17 mmtpa and petchem performance are expected to remain muted. Refining margins are also expected to remain subdued due to weak Singapore GRM.

Consolidated results

Another brokerage JM Financial expects RIL’s EBITDA to grow 2.5% quarter-on-quarter to ₹39,700 crore due to a sharp tariff-hike-led 9.4% quarter-on-quarter rise in Digital EBITDA; that, though, is likely to be partly offset by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter decline in O2C segment driven by lower refining and petchem margins.

Shares of Reliance Industries are trading 0.54% higher at ₹2,756.85 and now has a market capitalisation well above ₹18.66 lakh crore.