When Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs that shook the foundation of many economies, it was not his act of economic nationalism or a gamble. But there were a group of advisers who shaped Trump’s vision and economic agenda. One of the core architects was Stephen Ira Miran – the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA).

Currently a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital Management LP and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute in New York City, Miran holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University and his dissertation advisor was Martin Feldstein, an eminent American economist who chaired the CEA during the Reagan administration.

The CEA advises the president on economic policy and comprises three members, including the chair. The council assists in preparing an annual report that gives an overview of the country’s economy, reviews federal policies and programs, and makes economic policy recommendations.

What Are Miran’s Views On Tariffs?

Miran said on Monday that fears over trade tariffs that Trump imposed and paused for now are overblown. “Tariffs deserve some extra attention. Most economists and some investors dismiss tariffs as counterproductive at best and devastatingly harmful at worst. They’re wrong,” Miran said.

“One reason the economic consensus on tariffs is so wrong is because nearly all of the models that economists use to study international trade assume either no trade deficits at all, or assume that deficits are short-lived and quickly self-correct through currency adjustments,” he said in his remarks at Hudson Institute think tank.

According to standard models, trade deficits will cause the US dollar to weaken, which reduces imports and boosts exports, eventually wiping out the trade deficit, Miran said.

Miran’s View On International Trade

In his recent research paper, “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System,” published in November, Miran lays out a comprehensive framework for redesigning the rules of international trade. His approach to tariffs is not just about generating revenue—it’s a strategic effort to revive America’s industrial capacity, which has steadily eroded in the face of rising economic powers such as China.

Miran, who laid out the ideas before being nominated as an advisor, first points to Trump’s imposition of tariffs on China in 2018-2019, which, he argues “passed with little discernible macroeconomic consequence.”

He said during that time the US dollar rose to offset the macroeconomic impact of the tariffs and resulted in significant revenue for the US Treasury.

“The effective tariff rate on Chinese imports increased by 17.9 percentage points from the start of the trade war in 2018 to the maximum tariff rate in 2019,” the paper said. “As the financial markets digested the news, the Chinese renminbi depreciated against the dollar over this period by 13.7%, so that the after-tariff USD import price rose by 4.1%.”

Miran has argued that US dollar has always been overvalued due to its status as reserve currency. But it has put burden on American manufacturing by making it cheaper to buy abroad.

“I expect this tension to be resolved by policies that aim to preserve the status of the dollar, but improve burden sharing with our trading partners,” the report said, as quoted by The Financial Post. “International trade policy will attempt to recapture some of the benefit our reserve provision conveys to trading partners and connect this economic burden sharing with defence burden sharing.”

Redefining Economic Relations

Miran’s ambitions go beyond tariffs or short-term trade deals. His vision extends to a complete re-engineering of America’s economic relationships—requiring trading partners to revalue their currencies, increase industrial investments in the US, and, in some cases, support American fiscal health by purchasing zero-yield Treasury bonds, as per Modern Diplomacy.

He sees these mechanisms as essential for restoring economic balance and ensuring long-term national prosperity.

“Because the United States is a large source of consumer demand for the world with robust capital markets, it can withstand tit-for-tat escalation more easily than other nations and is likelier to win a game of chicken,” the report said.

What Are Critics Saying?

Critics suggest that Trump’s decisions are driven more by short-term political calculus than grand strategy—aimed at appealing to domestic voters and nationalist sentiments.

For example, Senator Elizabeth Warren has called for a formal investigation into whether Trump manipulated the stock market to benefit his Wall Street donors after his well-timed social media post to ‘buy’ prior to an announcement on tariffs.

Critics, including former White House ethics lawyer Richard Painter, questioned whether Trump’s social media message violated securities laws, reported the Associated Press. “The people who bought when they saw that post made a lot of money,” Painter remarked, suggesting potential insider trading violations.

About Stephen Miran

Miran graduated from Boston University in 2005, studying economics, philosophy, and mathematics. He received a PhD in economics from Harvard University in 2010, where he was a student of Martin Feldstein, an eminent American economist who chaired the CEA during the US President Ronald Reagan administration in the 1980s.

Miran was a senior strategist at multi-billion-dollar global investment management firm, Hudson Bay Capital Management before becoming the 32nd chair of the US CEA. Miran is also co-founder of the asset management firm Amberwave Partners, and an adjunct fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

Miran served as an advisor of economic policy for the Department of the Treasury from 2020 to 2021, during Steven Mnuchin’s tenure as secretary of the Treasury.