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The Nifty itself is heading into the March series on the back of five consecutive months of negative returns, a record not seen since 1996. The GIFT Nifty too is indicating a gap down start for the March series, putting the 22,500 support zone under threat as well.
Historically, the March series provides no clear direction to the Nifty as the last four years have seen the index alternate between gains and losses. However, the index did make a bottom of 16,828 in March 2023 before embarking to new highs.
| March Series Year | Returns (Points) | Returns (%) |
| 2021 | -773 | -5.1 |
| 2022 | 1,217 | 7.5 |
| 2023 | -430 | -2.5 |
| 2024 | 344 | 1.6 |
The Nifty has lost over 3,600 points in the last five series, during which it has delivered negative returns.
| Month | Returns (Points) |
| February 2025 | -705 |
| January 2025 | -501 |
| December 2024 | -164 |
| November 2024 | -291 |
| October 2024 | -2,011 |
Rollovers from the February to the March series stood at 83.6%, which is higher than the three-month average of 79.6%.
| Series | Rollovers |
| March | 83.6% |
| February | 80.8% |
| January | 77.7% |
| December | 79.3% |
Open interest at the start of the March series is nearly the same as it was at the start of the February series.
| Month | Nifty Open Interest |
| March | 1.68 Crore |
| February | 1.73 Crore |
| January | 1.12 Crore |
| December | 1.18 Crore |
FIIs continue to remain net short on the index futures with net long exposure only at 16% at the start of the series, although it is marginally higher than the February level of 11%.
| Month | FII Longs In Futures |
| March | 16% |
| February | 11% |
| January | 18% |
| December | 33% |
| November | 22% |
FII flows will be the key trigger to watch in the March series as institutions have pulled out over $25 billion over the last five months during the Nifty’s losing streak.
Along with this, the NAV management as it will be the end of the financial year will also be a key monitorable. High frequency domestic data, the Fed meet outcome on March 19 and of course, the levy of tariffs by US President Donald Trump and the developments around that will also be a key monitorable.
(Edited by : Hormaz Fatakia)
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