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Global brokerage firm CLSA has an ‘Outperform’ rating on Kotak Mahindra Bank, with a price target of ₹2,125, implying a potential upside of 9% from Wednesday’s closing price.
CLSA said that while the RBI’s decision is sentimentally positive, it does not materially impact earnings per share (EPS). Since the ban, Kotak’s credit card spending and loan market share declined by 50 basis points to 4%.
However, as credit cards make up only 3% of the bank’s total loans, the overall impact on loan growth was less than 1 percentage point, with a 2%-3% effect on Q3 EPS.
CLSA expects Kotak to add customers in a calibrated manner, considering the broader macroeconomic environment. The lifting of restrictions on ‘811’ digital customers could contribute up to 1 percentage point to the bank’s overall deposit growth.
HSBC maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Kotak Mahindra Bank, with a price target of ₹2,210. The brokerage sees this as a positive development that could enhance KMB’s customer franchise, improve earnings prospects, and support valuations. It highlighted that credit cards and digital acquisition (via ‘811’) are key components of Kotak’s growth strategy.
Morgan Stanley has an ‘Overweight’ rating on Kotak, with a price target of ₹2,290, saying the lender is well-positioned for a re-rating.
Morgan Stanley wrote in its note that Kotak’s profitability is already stronger than its peers, and a potential acceleration in unsecured loan growth could help the bank manage margins and growth more effectively.
Bernstein has assigned a ‘Market Perform’ rating to Kotak, with a price target of ₹1,950. The brokerage views the central bank’s decision as a positive step that could ease margin pressure caused by recent rate cuts. More importantly, it considers this a relief for the banking industry, as heightened regulatory scrutiny and strict penalties for compliance failures had emerged as key sector risks.
Macquarie maintains an ‘Outperform’ rating on Kotak Mahindra Bank, with a price target of ₹2,200.
The brokerage believes that lifting the ban will support growth and help cushion margins. It factors in the highest core earnings growth (adjusted for a stake sale) for Kotak among large private-sector banks in FY26E—projecting 23% growth versus 13%-19% for peers.
Additionally, Macquarie views Kotak’s current valuation at 1.7x FY27E P/B (standalone) as offering a favorable risk-reward profile.
Out of the 44 analysts that have coverage on Kotak Mahindra Bank, 35 of them have a ‘Buy’ rating on the lender, four say ‘Hold’, while five have a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock.
Shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank settled 1.40% higher on Wednesday at ₹1,945.50. The stock has gained 12% over the last 12 months.
Kotak shares have had single-digit returns on either side every year since 2020, during which it had gained 18.5%. Since then, the stock fell 10% in 2021, gained 1.8% in 2022, gained 4.4% in 2023 and fell 6.4% last year.
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