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All three OMCs gained between 2% to 3% in trade on Monday. While shares of HPCL and BPCL gained for the third day in a row, while Indian Oil gained for the second day running.
The surge comes on the back of a fall in oil prices which have now declined in four out of the last five trading sessions.
Brent slid toward $79 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $76.
“The window for a fundamentally driven constructive view on the oil complex has been closing,” RBC analysts including Brian Leisen and Helima Croft said in a note. “The bearish view is simple, and in the medium term, slowing economic activity, weakness in Asia, and softer refinery margins all don’t bode well for crude prices going into year-end. That said, directional conviction, in the near term, for crude at $80/bbl is low.”
Despite the recent surge, shares of Indian Oil are down over 6% so far in the month of August, while those of BPCL and HPCL are down 1.5% and 1.2% so far for the month.
While shares of HPCL are up over 45% so far in 2024, those of BPCL have been outperformers, with gains of 51%. Indian Oil shares have risen 30% so far this year.
“At the moment, BPCL exhibits a “Bullish Pennant” continuation pattern, which is a sign of upcoming momentum & positive for the secular bull trend to remain intact. Therefore, we recommend establishing long positions up to ₹335 with a weekly closing stop loss below ₹322. In one to two weeks, if the stock overcomes the recent consolidation hurdle at ₹360, we could see a massive momentum rally that could drive the price action above ₹400 and towards the bullish pennant target of ₹420,” said Sacchitanand Uttekar of Tradebulls Securities.
Shares of BPCL have been outperformers in Monday’s trading session, gaining over 3%, while those of HPCL and Indian Oil have gained between 1.5% to 2%.
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