Brokerage firm ICICI Securities wrote in its note post the Union Budget of 2025 that the total tax benefits from enhanced tax slabs and tax rebate are maximum for individuals with income levels between ₹7 lakh to ₹24 lakh and hence will boost discretionary demand the most.

However, it went on to add that the moves may not have any material impact on lower-end consumption.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharmaan, in her eighth budget address on Saturday, February 1, announced that there will be no income tax liability on individuals earning a normal income of ₹12 lakh, excluding capital gains.

ICICI Securities said that the Budget focused on inclusive development, productivity enhancement and a boost to consumption via enhanced tax slabs and tax rebates.

“Direct tax collection for financial year 2026 appears on the higher side at 14% year-on-year, despite the ₹1 lakh crore tax foregone and a nominal GDP growth of around 10%, thereby posing a risk to the fiscal deficit target of 4.4%./

The brokerage called the capex allocation “underwhelming”, although effective capex, which includes grants in aid for creation of capital assets was reasonably robust. However, the brokerage believes that this figure may see some slippage given how it behaved in financial year 2025.

Here are some of the sectoral winners and losers, according to ICICI Securities:

• Announcements from the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and the Jal Jeevan Mission are positive for stocks like Supreme Industries, Finolex Industries, Astral and Prince Pipes.
• Announcements for the Pharma sector are “neutral”, according to ICICI Securities and those for promotion of medical tourism are positive for hospitals.
• No LPG compensation for under-recoveries is negative for India’s Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) – HPCL, BPCL and Indian Oil. The under-recoveries for the first nine months of the financial year amount to nearly ₹30,000 crore.
• The move of developing the top 50 tourist destinations in the country in partnerships with states through a challenge mode is positive in the medium-to-long-term for all hotel owners / operators in the leisure segment, the brokerage said.
• Higher focus on urban consumption is positive for Havells, Voltas and Blue Star. Reduction in customs duty to 0 from 2.5% on parts of open cells used to manufacture TV panels of LCD and LED TVs is marginally positive for Dixon and Syrma but the move to increase the customs duty to 20% from 10% on interactive flat panels displays is positive for Dixon and Syrma. You can read about Dixon’s explanation on why the move is positive for the company here.
• The SWAMIH Fund 2 worth ₹15,000 crore will aim for expeditious completion of affordable and mid-income housing and this will boost housing finance companies like Aadhaar, Aavas, Home First, Aptus, India Shelter, PNB Housing and LIC Housing.
• The tax savings announced can be positive for AMCs, brokers, exchanges and depositories, according to ICICI Securities.
• Power sector reforms and the nuclear energy mission will benefit Power EPC, Power Capital goods and transmission assets owning companies like Power Grid, Adani Energy Solutions, Tata Power, BHEL, NTPC, KEC International, Kalpataru Projects and Skipper.
• The subdued capex number is negative for L&T, GR Infra, Ashoka Buildcon along with other infra and road EPC companies.
• The brokerage also highlights stocks like Jubilant Foodworks, other QSR chains, Trent, Vishal Mega Mart, Page Industries, Nykaa, Swiggy, Zomato, Cello World, IndiGo Paints, Voltas, Blue Star, USL, HUL as some of the key beneficiaries of the potential consumption boom post the tax changes.
• However, it also said that companies like Britannia, Dabur, Emami, Jyothy Labs, Tata Consumer, Avenue Supermarts, Kalyan Jewellers, Titan, Vedant Fashions are unlikely to see any material gains.